Actually there’s nothing really wrong with Missouri — but ultimately we’ll be plotting things about sick people in that state. Missouri has covid vaccine breakthrough reports1, with case numbers dating back to the beginning of the covid vaccination campaign:
As is usual around here we’re going to plug those numbers in to make a week to week effective Ev, “efficacy” plot:
And then we’re taking the Missouri vaccinated/unvaccinated populations for each week for the N(UN)vaccinated numbers in this double fraction. I’ve also, since they fit nicely on a plot of a thing portrayed as a percentage, included the Missouri percent vaccinated and boosted for each week. Here we go:
Some notes here: as is usual, Missouri counts “vaccinated” as those who have completed the respective vaccination sequence + two weeks. So everyone else is counted as “unvaccinated”. I couldn’t find a good set of historical vaccination data from the Missouri website itself, but did find the completely vaccinated and boosted numbers for the state at the CDC2. The boosted number by the way isn’t used in calculating anything here, just included for illustration.
But this is a pretty terrible illustration. Yellow is percentage of people fully vaccinated, then orange, people who’ve gotten an additional shot. From this I would say one can easily justify an additional booster dose to fully push the black curve all the way down to zero.
Wait what? Don’t we want the black curve to be 100%? We’re now seeing efficacy make a beeline to zero in Missouri, when nearly half the vaccinated population there have had an additional shot in around the last 3 months! On March 6 we have 9.5% efficacy!
Oh wait — isn’t that the advertised number?
Hmm. But there’s a dot between the 9 and the 5.
Really. Clearly then we need to keep pounding people’s faces against that brick wall.
Lets go for that 4th shot!
For the (fully and boosted) vaccinated numbers we’re using this: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends_vacctrends-fully-cum and then unvaccinated by definition subtracted from the state population (https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MO)